TRREB June 2026 Market Review

The Greater Toronto Area housing market continued to strengthen in June, closing the first half of the year with improving sales, fewer new listings, and early signs that pricing conditions may be stabilizing.

After a cautious start to 2026, the market has gradually shifted. Buyers are returning, sellers remain selective, and the balance between supply and demand is beginning to tighten.

The most notable development is not simply that sales increased. It is that sales grew while new listings declined.

This combination suggests that the market is moving beyond the hesitation that defined much of the past year. Buyers who had been waiting for clearer signals on affordability, interest rates, and pricing are beginning to act. At the same time, many homeowners remain reluctant to list in an environment where prices are still below last year’s levels.

The result is a market that remains balanced, but is becoming more competitive.

June also reinforces the idea that 2026 may be divided into two distinct periods: a slower first quarter followed by a more active second half. The recovery is not dramatic, and price growth has not yet returned broadly. However, the direction of the market is becoming increasingly clear.

Sales Gain Momentum

TRREB reported 6,770 home sales through the MLS® System in June 2026, representing a 9.4% increase compared to June 2025.

Sales also increased compared to May on a seasonally adjusted basis, extending the improvement that began earlier in the spring.

This marks an important shift.

For much of the past year, improved affordability had not translated into significantly stronger transaction volumes. Buyers had greater purchasing power than they did at the height of the interest rate cycle, but many remained concerned that prices could fall further.

That hesitation appears to be easing.

The June increase suggests that more households are becoming comfortable entering the market before prices fully recover. Rather than waiting for absolute confirmation that the bottom has passed, buyers are beginning to respond to improved selection, softer prices, and more manageable borrowing conditions.

The recovery remains measured.

There is little evidence of the urgency that defined earlier housing cycles. Buyers are still conducting careful due diligence, negotiating where possible, and avoiding properties that appear overpriced.

This is not a market being driven by speculation.

It is a market gradually being reactivated by households whose purchase decisions were delayed rather than abandoned.

New Listings Fall Sharply

While sales increased, the number of new listings declined significantly.

A total of 17,282 properties entered the MLS® System in June, down 12.9% compared to the same month last year.

New listings also decreased compared to May on a seasonally adjusted basis.

This matters.

Demand is strengthening at the same time that fewer properties are being brought to market. That dynamic is slowly reducing the amount of choice available to buyers and increasing the rate at which existing inventory is being absorbed.

Active listings remained elevated by historical standards, but were meaningfully lower than a year earlier. Approximately 27,329 properties were available for sale at the end of June, around 13.5% below June 2025 levels.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio also improved, rising to approximately 39%.

This remains below the level typically associated with a seller’s market, but the direction is significant. A year ago, inventory was accumulating more quickly and buyers had substantially greater leverage. Today, supply is being absorbed at a faster pace.

At approximately four months of inventory, the GTA remains within balanced-market territory.

Buyers still have options. Sellers still need to price carefully. But the surplus that defined much of 2025 is gradually being reduced.

If inventory continues to fall while sales hold at current levels, market conditions could tighten further through the fall.

Prices Move Closer to Stability

Pricing trends in June continued to show annual declines, although the pace of those declines has moderated.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was $940,800, down 5.4% compared to June 2025. The average selling price reached $1,058,658, representing a 3.9% annual decline.

These figures confirm that buyers continue to benefit from lower prices compared to last year.

However, the broader trend is becoming more nuanced.

The annual decline in the average selling price has narrowed over recent months. Nationally, the MLS® Home Price Index was unchanged between May and June, marking the first month since early 2025 in which the index did not decline.

Within the GTA, TRREB’s seasonally adjusted figures indicated slight month-over-month improvements in both the benchmark and average selling price.

Other data sources showed softer unadjusted monthly pricing, including a 0.6% decline in the benchmark and a 1% decline in the average price. This apparent difference likely reflects seasonal adjustments and changes in the mix of homes sold.

Average prices can move depending on whether more high-value detached homes or lower-priced condominiums transact during a given month.

For this reason, the broader direction matters more than any single monthly movement.

Prices are not yet rising consistently, but the downward pressure appears to be easing.

That distinction is important for buyer psychology.

Many prospective purchasers have been waiting for proof that values are no longer declining. If pricing continues to stabilize while sales improve, confidence could strengthen more quickly in the second half of the year.

Market Performance Varies by Property Type

The recovery remains uneven across housing segments.

Detached homes recorded an average selling price of approximately $1.36 million in June, down 2% year-over-year. Semi-detached homes averaged roughly $1.04 million, representing a 4.7% annual decline.

Freehold townhouses averaged approximately $912,000, down 5.5% from last year.

Condominium apartments continued to experience the greatest pricing pressure, with the average price falling 9.4% year-over-year to approximately $631,000.

This divergence reflects different supply conditions across the market.

Detached and semi-detached properties remain relatively scarce in many established neighbourhoods. Condominium buyers, by contrast, continue to benefit from greater selection, particularly in areas where investor-owned units and newly completed projects have added inventory.

Sales activity nevertheless increased across several categories.

Condominium sales rose strongly compared to both May and last year, suggesting that lower prices are beginning to attract buyers who had previously remained on the sidelines.

For investors and first-time buyers, the condominium segment may offer some of the widest pricing opportunities. However, building quality, maintenance fees, location, and local inventory should remain central to any purchasing decision.

The National Market Is Also Improving

The GTA’s June performance reflects a broader improvement across Canada.

National home sales increased 0.5% compared to May, following a much stronger 5.5% gain in the previous month. Sales were also 0.9% higher than in June 2025.

New listings declined 1.3% nationally, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio above 50% for the first time this year.

The national market remains balanced, with approximately 4.8 months of inventory. However, several indicators suggest that the adjustment period may be nearing its later stages.

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index was unchanged from May and recorded its smallest annual decline since October.

Ontario prices remain below last year’s levels, but those declines are becoming less pronounced.

This national context supports the trend emerging in the GTA: transaction activity is recovering before broad price growth.

Affordability Remains the Central Challenge

Improved sales do not mean that housing has become broadly affordable.

Borrowing costs have eased from earlier peaks, and mortgage rate expectations have become more stable. However, household budgets remain stretched, particularly for first-time buyers and families purchasing larger homes.

The cost of delivering new housing also remains a significant concern.

Development charges help municipalities finance infrastructure, but they can substantially increase the upfront cost of construction. In some cases, these charges may represent a meaningful portion of the final purchase price.

Programs designed to reduce development charges while compensating municipalities could help lower project costs and support new supply.

However, affordability will require more than temporary incentives.

The region continues to need a wider range of housing, including townhomes, multiplexes, mid-rise buildings, and family-sized rental units.

Without sustained construction, any significant return of demand could place renewed upward pressure on prices.

Market Outlook

June reflects a market that is becoming more active, but has not yet entered a rapid rebound.

Sales are increasing. New listings are declining. Inventory is being absorbed more quickly, and annual price declines are becoming smaller.

Taken together, these trends suggest that the balance between buyers and sellers is gradually shifting.

For buyers, meaningful opportunities remain. Prices are still below last year’s levels, negotiating room continues to exist, and many segments remain balanced.

However, the period of maximum buyer leverage may be beginning to narrow.

For sellers, conditions are improving, but pricing discipline remains essential. Properties that are well-presented and aligned with current market value are more likely to attract serious interest. Overpriced listings may still remain on the market for extended periods.

For investors, June reinforces the value of focusing on long-term fundamentals rather than waiting for a dramatic market signal. By the time price growth becomes obvious, competition may already have returned.

The GTA housing market is not surging.

It is recovering gradually, with activity strengthening before prices.

June may ultimately be remembered as the month when that recovery became more visible—not because the market changed overnight, but because sales, supply, and confidence finally began moving in the same direction.