TRREB October 2025 Market Review

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market eased again in October, marking a pause in the gradual recovery that had taken shape through the summer. After five months of steady sales growth, activity slipped both year-over-year and month-over-month, reminding observers that while affordability metrics continue to improve, confidence—not capability—remains the defining constraint on demand.

TRREB reported 6,138 home sales, down 9.5% from last year. New listings edged 2.7% higher to 16,069, keeping supply ample. Prices continued their mild descent, with the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark down 5% year-over-year to about $976,600, and the average price down 7.2% to $1,054,372.

Seasonally adjusted data showed sales down 2.3% from September, the lowest since June. The market leans toward balance structurally, but sentiment remains cautious.

Buyer Confidence and Activity

“Buyers who are confident in their employment situation and ability to make their mortgage payments over the long term are benefitting from affordable housing market conditions relative to the past few years,” said TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule. “However, many intending homebuyers remain on the sidelines due to uncertainty about their economic future.”

That gap between can and will defines today’s market. Lower prices and rates have opened doors closed a year ago, but job market unease and memories of 2024’s volatility keep many buyers waiting. Active listings climbed to 27,800—17% higher than last year—giving buyers plenty of selection and negotiating power. Conditional offers, price adjustments, and longer days on market remain the norm.

Detached homes averaged $1.36M (–7.3%), semis $1.03M (–2.8%), townhomes $902K (–8.5%), and condos $660K (–4.7%). These declines point to sentiment-driven softness, not structural weakness. TRREB noted that monthly mortgage payments for an average-priced home continue to trend lower thanks to declining prices and borrowing costs—making ownership more achievable.

Price Trends and Early Stabilization

Despite headline declines, pricing data shows early stabilization. The HPI rose 0.2% month-over-month after four months of decline—the first sign of consistency since spring.

Suburban condo markets like York and Halton saw the steepest drops, while Toronto’s detached segment held firmer with 6–8% yearly declines, supported by limited family-home supply near transit. For investors, the current phase offers selective opportunity: rental demand remains strong and yields are improving.

Inventory and Market Balance

Even with new listings moderating, active inventory remains generous. October’s 16,000+ new listings exceeded sales comfortably, keeping months of inventory near five—above the 3-month balance threshold. Buyers enjoy time and choice, while sellers face competition and must emphasize presentation, accuracy, and flexibility.

Market geography continues to fragment: downtown condos are steadier, suburban 905 markets still sluggish as commuting costs and economic caution persist.

Rate Relief Deepens but Recovery Awaits

The Bank of Canada’s October rate cut to 2.25%, its third since mid-year, provided another affordability boost. Five-year fixed mortgage rates are now near 3.7%, the lowest since 2022—saving buyers hundreds monthly.

Still, rate relief alone hasn’t revived confidence. Global trade tensions and a weaker employment outlook continue to weigh on sentiment, leaving housing demand ready but restrained.

Broader Economic Context

TRREB CEO John DiMichele framed it well: “Housing is essential economic infrastructure. As the population grows, innovation and private capital must accelerate construction across all housing types.” He called on governments to modernize tax rules, streamline zoning, and cut buyer costs to restore confidence.

While affordability improves, years of underbuilding mean supply will tighten once sentiment returns. Policymakers are urged to use this calm period to push reform before renewed demand meets limited stock.

Market Outlook: A Breather Before the Next Move

For investors, October’s data signals not retreat—but recalibration. The story is less about weakness and more about hesitation. The math now favours capital deployment: borrowing costs are at multi-year lows, prices have softened across asset classes, and rental demand continues to strengthen. What’s missing isn’t value—it’s conviction.

History shows that recoveries in the GTA often begin quietly, with stability preceding acceleration. October fits that pattern: fewer extremes, steadier pricing, and a balanced supply pipeline. In this kind of market, experienced investors gain an edge—those willing to look beyond the headlines and focus on fundamentals like yield, location, and long-term appreciation potential.

With five-year fixed rates trending near 3.7% and affordability metrics improving, the entry window is widening. End-user demand remains cautious, but investors can leverage this pause to negotiate strategically, lock in financing while rates are low, and position portfolios ahead of the next upcycle.

The GTA market isn’t collapsing—it’s consolidating. October marked a reset, not a reversal. As affordability improves and rates stabilize, investor participation will likely drive the first wave of renewed momentum heading into 2026.

In short: this isn’t the time to wait for certainty—it’s the time to prepare for recovery.