TRREB April 2025 Market Review

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market followed a familiar seasonal pattern in April 2025, with home sales rising modestly from the previous month. But while the pace picked up slightly compared to March, year-over-year data reveals a market still shaped by hesitation, affordability shifts, and economic uncertainty.

Amid elevated inventory levels and softer pricing, prospective buyers and investors are navigating a landscape full of both opportunity and ambiguity. The result? A market on the cusp of change—but not quite in motion.

April by the Numbers: Activity Slows Year-Over-Year

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,601 residential transactions in April 2025. This marks a 23.3% decline from the same period last year, underscoring a trend that’s persisted across the first quarter: consumers are waiting.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, however, April activity showed a 1.8% increase from March, following the usual springtime uptick. This monthly rise suggests that while buyers haven’t rushed back into the market, there is movement—albeit cautious.

New listings totalled 18,836, up 8.1% year-over-year, while active listings rose to 27,386—a 54% increase over April 2024. This supply surge is giving buyers greater flexibility and bargaining power across most market segments.

Downward Pressure Continues on Price Trends

With higher inventory and subdued demand, prices continued to adjust downward in April. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark dropped 5.4% compared to April 2024, while the average selling price fell 4.1% year-over-year to $1,107,463.

Seasonally adjusted pricing also edged lower from March, pointing to ongoing price flexibility amid subdued competition.

The pricing environment is now far more accommodating for buyers, especially those who were previously priced out of the market. But affordability isn’t the only hurdle—economic confidence is playing an outsized role in slowing the decision-making process.

Affordability Improves—but So Does Caution

On paper, April’s market offered improved affordability: more listings, negotiable prices, and signs that borrowing costs may begin easing later this year. For many buyers, this is welcome news.

However, even with these factors aligning, many remain hesitant to commit. That’s because affordability isn’t just about price—it’s about confidence in income, job security, and broader economic direction.

“Households are closely monitoring post-election developments and macroeconomic signals,” TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer noted. “They’re asking not just ‘Can I afford a home today?’ but ‘Will I still be secure in my investment tomorrow?’”

This dynamic has led to a highly rational, data-driven buyer pool—one that is more likely to pause, calculate, and wait than rush in out of fear of missing out. While affordability is improving for now, longer-term supply concerns may challenge this trend if not addressed.

Supply Snapshot: More Listings Now, Fewer Starts Ahead

One of the more notable shifts in April was the sharp increase in available inventory. The 54% year-over-year jump in active listings reflects both a backlog of unsold homes and an increase in sellers looking to capitalize on buyer interest before rates potentially shift again.

However, the longer-term supply picture is more complex.

While resale inventory is growing, a sharp drop in pre-construction sales raises concerns about a future housing shortage. With demand expected to rise due to immigration, TRREB is focused on working with all levels of government to improve housing affordability, support first-time buyers, and expand supply across Ontario.

Without a strong pre-construction pipeline, the GTA risks re-entering a period of tight supply and fast price escalation once demand returns—particularly in high-growth suburban zones.

Macroeconomic Watch: Policy, Trade & Election Impacts

From an investor standpoint, March’s numbers reinforce the importance of strategic patience. While lower prices and reduced competition may present attractive entry points, the broader economic environment still calls for a cautious, research-driven approach.

The rental market remains a bright spot, underpinned by sustained population growth, affordability challenges in homeownership, and limited supply in key urban centers. For investors looking to build or expand rental portfolios, these fundamentals continue to support long-term income potential.

Still, timing will be crucial. Interest rate cuts anticipated later this year may reignite buyer demand and shift market dynamics. At the same time, external variables—including trade developments and evolving federal housing policy—could quickly reshape the investment landscape. Navigating these shifts will require a careful balance between opportunity and risk management.

Investor Outlook on Why Strategy Beats Speculation

While end-user buyers are approaching the market with caution, investors have a unique window of opportunity. With prices adjusting and borrowing costs expected to ease, this is a chance to acquire assets below peak pricing—especially in areas with strong rental fundamentals.

Toronto’s rental market remains robust, buoyed by immigration, affordability constraints in ownership, and ongoing urbanization. For investors, the play in 2025 may be slow and steady—prioritizing cash flow, tenant quality, and long-term value over speculative gains.

At the same time, it's critical to approach the market with realistic expectations. The current environment favors strategic buyers with a research-first mindset, not speculative investors banking on a short-term rebound.

Looking Ahead: The Rebound Setup

April’s numbers suggest that the market has laid the groundwork for recovery, but isn’t quite there yet. Prices are more manageable, inventory is healthy, and policy attention remains fixed on housing. Households across the GTA are also closely watching how Canada’s trade relationship with the United States will unfold following the recent federal election. If this relationship moves in a positive direction, it could boost consumer confidence and pave the way for increased market activity—especially as affordability improves and supply remains stable.

But until economic confidence returns, activity is likely to remain moderate.

In the meantime:

• Buyers have time and choice—two things rarely available in hot markets.

• Sellers must focus on realistic pricing and smart staging to stand out.

• Investors can use this period to re-evaluate their portfolios and position themselves ahead of the next upcycle.

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The GTA’s housing market in April 2025 is marked by contrast: high inventory, low urgency; improving affordability, but muted confidence. Still, the conditions for momentum are falling into place. What’s missing is belief—from buyers, from the market, and from the economy. Until that returns, expect a steady, cautious pace. But for those who act strategically, now may be the best time to move before the crowd catches on.