TRREB June 2025 Market Review

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued its slow but steady climb toward recovery in June 2025, building on three consecutive months of improved sales activity. With borrowing costs lower than a year ago and inventory levels still elevated, buyers have gained negotiating leverage—though confidence remains the final barrier holding back a full-fledged rebound.

Despite persistent economic uncertainty and a national housing landscape shaped by external pressures, market fundamentals in the GTA are gradually stabilizing. June’s figures reflect a shift toward balance, with affordability improving and price declines appearing to taper off. But with trade tensions unresolved and interest rates still above pandemic-era lows, many would-be homebuyers remain cautious.

June at a Glance: Third Straight Month of Growth

GTA REALTORS® reported 6,243 home sales through TRREB's MLS® System in June 2025, representing a modest 2.4% decline year-over-year. However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales climbed 8.1% from May—marking the third consecutive month of upward movement.

New listings totaled 19,839, a 7.7% increase over June 2024. Active listings were up 34% year-over-year, giving buyers more options and time to make informed decisions.

"Inventory levels remain high historically. This means buyers have still benefited from substantial negotiating power," noted TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer.

This evolving dynamic is giving buyers the edge in negotiations, especially in segments with deeper supply, such as suburban detached homes and resale condos.

Prices Find a Possible Floor

Price trends in June reflected a continued cooling, but signs of stabilization are beginning to emerge. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down 5.5% year-over-year, while the average selling price dropped by 5.4% to $1,101,691.

On a month-over-month basis, the seasonally adjusted HPI and average selling price edged slightly lower, suggesting that price depreciation is slowing. The city of Toronto posted a 4.4% annual drop in HPI values, while York Region experienced the sharpest decline at 8.5%.

These trends underscore a more affordable market for buyers but also hint that the most significant price corrections may already be behind us.

Affordability Rises—But So Does Buyer Hesitation

Lower borrowing costs and adjusted home prices have improved affordability across the board. Five-year fixed mortgage rates, now hovering just under 4%, are down from nearly 5% this time last year. For households previously priced out of the market, 2025 has offered a more approachable entry point.

Yet affordability alone hasn’t been enough to fully revive demand. Many prospective buyers are still waiting on the sidelines, citing concerns over economic stability, job security, and unresolved trade negotiations with the United States.

According to TRREB, a solid trade deal with the United States combined with easing cross-border tensions could help lift the struggling economy and boost consumer confidence. Further momentum could also be supported by two more interest rate cuts.

This hesitance points to a market that is no longer constrained by pricing, but by sentiment. Until buyers feel confident about the future, recovery will likely continue at a moderate pace.

Market Segments: What’s Moving and What’s Lagging

Several property segments are showing renewed activity:

• First-Time Buyers: This group is slowly re-engaging, especially in the condo and townhome markets where prices have become more attractive. Lower rates and higher supply have created the kind of environment first-timers have been waiting for.

• Investors: With rents remaining strong and purchase prices down, many long-term investors are stepping back in. However, the emphasis has shifted toward cash flow, tenant quality, and holding power rather than speculative flipping.

• Detached Homes: While demand is still muted in the detached segment, suburban areas with strong transit links and community amenities are gaining traction among move-up buyers.

Inventory Tightening? Not Yet—But Watch This Space

Though active listings remain elevated, TRREB data shows that June’s sales grew at a faster pace than new listings. If this trend continues into the summer, market conditions could gradually shift from buyer-friendly to more balanced—or even competitive—in certain high-demand pockets.

This tightening is still early-stage, but it reinforces the need for active buyers to stay informed about hyperlocal trends, particularly in neighborhoods with historically low turnover rates.

Policy Pressure: Housing Meets Public Safety

Beyond economic indicators, housing discourse in June was also shaped by growing public safety concerns. TRREB CEO John DiMichele pointed to rising incidents of home invasions and carjackings, noting that housing markets are not insulated from broader societal issues.

“TRREB is encouraged by the recent federal announcement to table a crime bill this Fall introducing stricter bail conditions and sentencing for these disturbing crimes,” DiMichele said. “But more is needed, such as working with provinces to increase law enforcement funding and improve court efficiency.”

While such concerns may not directly influence day-to-day market performance, they contribute to the broader climate of caution that defines today’s buyer mindset.

Looking Ahead: Summer Outlook 

With three months of steady gains, a leveling off in price declines, and elevated supply still on the market, the GTA is building a base for recovery. The key variable? Confidence.

If Canada’s trade environment improves and interest rate cuts materialize as anticipated, we could see a more pronounced uptick in activity by the end of summer. Conversely, prolonged uncertainty could keep the market in a holding pattern.

Still, for strategic buyers and long-term investors, the current environment offers more advantages than risks. Affordability, leverage, and time are rarely available all at once in the GTA housing market. The opportunity window may be open now—but it won’t stay open forever.

Until then, June’s results underscore a market in motion, not yet in full flight. Stability is forming. Momentum is building. What remains is belief—from buyers, from lenders, and from the economy itself.