TRREB November 2025 Market Review

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market slipped further into a holding pattern in November, marking one of the quietest months of 2025 as buyers continued to delay major decisions amid an uncertain economic backdrop. Sales, new listings, and prices all trended lower year-over-year, reinforcing a theme that has defined the fall season: capability is rising, but confidence has yet to catch up.

Despite lower borrowing costs, better affordability metrics, and signs of resilience in Canada’s broader economy, many households opted to stay on the sidelines—waiting not for lower rates, but for greater clarity around employment, trade conditions, and economic stability heading into 2026.

“There are many GTA households who want to take advantage of lower borrowing costs and more favourable selling prices. What they need most is confidence in their long-term employment outlook,” said TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule. Recent labour market data offered early encouragement, but sentiment remains fragile.

Sales Slip to a Five-Month Low

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,010 home sales in November 2025—a 15.8% decline from November 2024. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales edged 0.6% lower from October, marking the slowest monthly activity since June.

The softening follows a period of gradual improvement earlier in the year, when rate cuts sparked renewed interest across several buyer groups. But November’s data underscores the limits of rate relief when sentiment lags. Households positioned to buy have gained purchasing power, yet remain hesitant to act until economic conditions feel more predictable.

New listings also pulled back, falling 4% year-over-year to 11,134, as some sellers paused plans amid slower foot traffic and longer days on market. Compared with October, listings moderated again on a seasonally adjusted basis, showing that supply is easing—but not enough to offset weaker demand.

Total active inventory reached 24,549 units, nearly 17% higher than last year, keeping the market firmly in buyer-friendly territory.

Prices: Lower YoY but Stabilizing Month-to-Month

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark fell 5.8% year-over-year to approximately $971,100, while the average selling price declined 6.4% to $1,039,458. These declines reflect a year marked by softer sentiment, a buildup in supply, and cautious buyer behavior across all housing types.

However, the monthly data paints a slightly different picture. On a seasonally adjusted basis:

• The HPI slipped just 0.4%,

• The average selling price edged slightly upward, indicating that downward pressure on prices is easing.

  
  

This emerging flatline echoes trends seen in September and October: though yearly comparisons remain negative, the month-over-month stabilization hints that pricing may be approaching a floor—at least for now. The steepest annual declines continue to appear in suburban condo markets, while family-sized housing segments closer to transit and employment centers have held up comparatively better.

Affordability Improves… but Confidence Lags

The Bank of Canada’s latest rate cut—its third since mid-year—brought the policy rate down to 2.25%, the lowest level in three years. Five-year fixed mortgage rates now hover near 3.7%, offering meaningful savings and lowering qualification thresholds for many borrowers.

In theory, this should have accelerated demand. In practice, households remain cautious.

Lower borrowing costs have reopened doors that were firmly shut a year ago. Monthly payments have fallen materially, and price declines have expanded the range of affordable options for first-time buyers and move-up families alike. But the emotional calculus of homebuying remains dominated by questions around job stability, trade tensions, and the durability of recent economic gains.

This disconnect—ability vs. willingness—continues to define the GTA housing landscape.

Listings remain elevated, giving buyers time and leverage

With more than 24,000 active listings, buyers continue to enjoy choice, negotiating power, and reduced urgency. Conditional offers, price reductions, and extended listing periods remain standard across most sub-segments.

Sellers, meanwhile, face a market that rewards precision: competitive pricing, refreshed staging, and flexibility around conditions are becoming essential to attracting offers.

Like October, November delivered pockets of consistency without signaling a genuine turnaround. The market’s mechanics—rates, prices, and inventory—have largely settled into predictable ranges. What has not improved meaningfully is sentiment.

TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer noted that, “November reports on employment and economic growth were much stronger than expected. The Canadian economy may be weathering trade-related headwinds better than expected.” If this momentum continues, confidence could follow—a critical factor for any enduring rebound in early 2026.

Until that shift occurs, activity will likely remain subdued. Buyers who feel secure in their employment and financial outlook are benefitting today, but the broader pool of intending purchasers is waiting for the economic fog to clear.

Market Outlook: A Pause Before a Possible Reawakening

November’s decline in sales and modest monthly price movements reflect a market in wait-and-see mode. Yet beneath the quiet surface, the fundamentals show signs of gradual improvement. Rates are down. Affordability has improved. Employment data is stabilizing. And buyer capability is stronger than sentiment suggests.

The question heading into 2026 is not whether demand exists—it does—but when confidence will unlock it.

For buyers, the current moment offers rare leverage: choice, negotiating power, and lower borrowing costs. For sellers, realistic pricing and flexibility remain critical. For investors, November reinforces a theme that has echoed for months: the window for strategic entry is open, but the headlines have not yet caught up.

If confidence strengthens alongside improving economic signals, the GTA could shift from stabilization to renewal in early 2026. For now, November marks another month of calm, cautious adjustment—a market quietly resetting before its next move.